Buy NO at [0.95, 0.985] band with 2 days to resolution (Polymarket, Tier-1, widened gather)

Buying NO against an EvidenceDataset (213 rows); 213 trades fired.

Refine

Equity curve

$1,000 → $653.89 (-34.61%).

Metrics

Avg trade return
+0.00%
no trades fired
Edge vs crowd
+0.00%
no trades fired
Compounded (fixed-fraction)
−34.61%
reflects sizing, not per-trade edge
CAGR
−33.08%
Sharpe
-2.23
Sortino
-0.75
Max drawdown
36.72%
Win rate
93.43%
Trades
213

Drawdown

Peak-to-trough 36.72%.

Trade log

DecisionResolutionEntry priceSettlePnLDays heldReason
2025-05-062025-05-080.9790−$50.003 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-05-062025-05-080.9671$1.623 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-05-062025-05-080.9751$1.223 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-09-292025-10-010.96151$1.912 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-10-082025-10-100.9771$1.122 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-10-232025-10-250.96351$1.813 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-052025-11-070.96851$1.563 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-062025-11-080.97951$1.002 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-062025-11-080.97251$1.362 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-072025-11-090.9531$2.373 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-082025-11-100.9591$2.063 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-112025-11-130.9851$0.743 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-122025-11-140.97451$1.263 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-132025-11-150.97151$1.422 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-182025-11-200.9811$0.942 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-212025-11-230.97251$1.372 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-212025-11-230.9551$2.292 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-232025-11-250.98151$0.922 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-232025-11-250.9511$2.513 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-262025-11-280.97651$1.183 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-292025-12-010.95851$2.122 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-292025-12-010.9821$0.902 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-11-302025-12-020.9841$0.803 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-012025-12-030.9841$0.803 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-022025-12-040.96451$1.812 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-022025-12-040.9851$0.752 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-022025-12-040.9661$1.732 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-032025-12-050.97651$1.193 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-032025-12-050.9611$2.013 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-042025-12-060.981$1.012 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-072025-12-090.9621$1.963 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-092025-12-110.9791$1.073 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-092025-12-110.9761$1.223 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-092025-12-110.96551$1.783 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-092025-12-110.98051$0.993 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-092025-12-110.98051$0.993 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-132025-12-150.9821$0.922 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-132025-12-150.98351$0.842 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-142025-12-160.9651$1.823 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-172025-12-190.95351$2.453 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-172025-12-190.9831$0.872 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-182025-12-200.97051$1.532 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-182025-12-200.9611$2.052 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-212025-12-230.95451$2.413 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-232025-12-250.951$2.662 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-282025-12-300.9571$2.282 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-282025-12-300.9780−$50.883 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-302026-01-010.97751$1.112 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-302026-01-010.98451$0.762 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-302026-01-010.96551$1.732 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-302026-01-010.9781$1.092 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-302026-01-010.9731$1.352 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-302026-01-010.98251$0.872 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-312026-01-020.9791$1.043 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-12-312026-01-020.9711$1.463 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-032026-01-050.9641$1.822 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-032026-01-050.95851$2.122 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-042026-01-060.96551$1.753 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-042026-01-060.9831$0.852 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-072026-01-090.9620−$49.133 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-072026-01-090.95751$2.073 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-092026-01-110.96651$1.622 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-102026-01-120.9751$1.202 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-102026-01-120.9521$2.372 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-112026-01-130.98251$0.842 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-112026-01-130.97651$1.132 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-142026-01-160.95650−$47.143 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-142026-01-160.98251$0.803 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-142026-01-160.9841$0.733 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-152026-01-170.9611$1.822 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-162026-01-180.95851$1.952 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-182026-01-200.98351$0.762 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-192026-01-210.9581$1.982 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-202026-01-220.9781$1.023 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-212026-01-230.97951$0.953 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-212026-01-230.96551$1.623 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-222026-01-240.96551$1.622 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-242026-01-260.97351$1.242 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-272026-01-290.9591$1.952 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-282026-01-300.9611$1.852 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-282026-01-300.96051$1.883 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-292026-01-310.9840−$45.793 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-292026-01-310.9850−$43.503 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-292026-01-310.9550−$41.323 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-292026-01-310.9790−$39.263 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-302026-02-010.98051$0.742 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-302026-02-010.97051$1.133 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-302026-02-010.98051$0.742 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-01-302026-02-010.97551$0.942 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-012026-02-030.98451$0.593 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-012026-02-030.9791$0.802 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-022026-02-040.9711$1.122 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-032026-02-050.9531$1.852 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-042026-02-060.98251$0.672 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-042026-02-060.9540−$37.733 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-052026-02-070.96451$1.322 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-062026-02-080.96251$1.402 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-072026-02-090.97851$0.792 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-072026-02-090.9711$1.082 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-072026-02-090.96951$1.132 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-082026-02-100.9821$0.662 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-082026-02-100.97451$0.953 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-082026-02-100.9571$1.633 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-082026-02-100.9831$0.633 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-102026-02-120.951$1.912 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-112026-02-130.9691$1.162 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-122026-02-140.9811$0.712 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-132026-02-150.98051$0.732 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-142026-02-160.9781$0.822 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-142026-02-160.97851$0.802 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-152026-02-180.98451$0.583 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-162026-02-180.98351$0.613 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-172026-02-190.9551$1.732 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-172026-02-190.97851$0.812 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-172026-02-200.95751$1.633 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-182026-02-200.96151$1.482 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-192026-02-210.96751$1.242 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-222026-02-240.95851$1.602 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-232026-02-250.98251$0.662 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-252026-02-270.9851$0.572 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-252026-02-270.9771$0.883 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-262026-02-280.9721$1.072 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-262026-02-280.9551$1.762 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-262026-02-280.9731$1.043 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-262026-02-280.9671$1.283 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-272026-03-010.97450−$37.473 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-272026-03-010.9831$0.623 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-272026-03-010.9731$0.992 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-272026-03-010.97851$0.782 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-282026-03-020.9741$0.952 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-282026-03-020.9721$1.032 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-02-282026-03-040.95851$1.555 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-012026-03-030.96651$1.243 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-022026-03-040.95350−$35.963 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-022026-03-040.9851$0.523 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-242026-03-260.9851$0.523 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-282026-03-300.98051$0.682 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-282026-04-010.97351$0.934 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-282026-04-030.98351$0.586 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-282026-04-010.98251$0.614 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-292026-04-010.96151$1.383 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-292026-04-010.96251$1.343 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-292026-04-010.9771$0.813 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-302026-04-010.97451$0.902 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-302026-04-010.96951$1.092 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-302026-04-010.98451$0.552 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-302026-04-010.98151$0.652 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-03-302026-04-010.97351$0.942 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-012026-04-030.95851$1.503 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-022026-04-070.96651$1.215 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-042026-04-070.97751$0.803 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-052026-04-080.95751$1.554 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-052026-04-070.95451$1.673 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-110.97351$0.952 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-120.9671$1.204 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-130.9511$1.814 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-150.98051$0.706 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-130.95851$1.534 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-110.97551$0.892 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-130.98051$0.704 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-130.95851$1.544 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-130.98351$0.604 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-130.9731$0.994 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-120.98251$0.634 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-092026-04-130.9571$1.604 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-112026-04-130.96051$1.472 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-132026-04-160.98151$0.673 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-172026-04-190.98451$0.562 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-182026-04-230.9771$0.845 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-232026-04-250.9831$0.622 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-232026-04-250.951$1.892 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-242026-04-260.97651$0.872 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-242026-04-260.9691$1.152 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-262026-04-280.96251$1.412 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-272026-04-290.97951$0.762 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-282026-04-300.97651$0.872 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.95851$1.572 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.97351$0.992 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.9731$1.012 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.97851$0.802 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.971$1.132 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.97351$1.002 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.97151$1.072 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.97951$0.772 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-292026-05-010.97951$0.772 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-04-302026-05-020.9821$0.672 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-022026-05-040.9641$1.372 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-022026-05-040.9851$0.562 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-022026-05-040.9561$1.702 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-072026-05-090.9580−$36.953 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-072026-05-090.96151$1.412 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-102026-05-120.96451$1.292 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-102026-05-120.96050−$35.243 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-132026-05-150.9771$0.793 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-132026-05-150.95051$1.753 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-132026-05-150.96951$1.062 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-142026-05-160.96751$1.132 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-142026-05-160.95651$1.532 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-142026-05-160.9831$0.582 dayshold_to_resolution
2026-05-152026-05-170.97651$0.812 dayshold_to_resolution

How this was run i

Data source i
EvidenceDataset
Granularity i
86,400 sec
Period i
2025-05-082026-05-27
Bars i
213
Gaps i
0 (0 sec)
Price source i
mid
Slippage i
0 bps
Fees i
0 bps
Resolution i
realized
Starting capital i
$1,000
Sizing i
fixed_fraction: 0.05
Engine i
pancake-engine@0.1.1
Compiler i
pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0
IR i
0.1
Spec i
0.1
  • Resolution settles at $1 or $0 per share with no slippage or fee — on-chain costs and UMA dispute risk are not modeled.
  • Benchmark = crowd-priced YES at the first bar, held to resolution. Not sizing-matched to your strategy.
  • Sharpe is annualized by √252 (trading-day convention) even though prediction markets run 24/7.

Spec

pancake-evidence-spec · rawv0.1
// pancake-evidence-spec v0.1 — spec_hash 34a89fc13357…
{
  "name": "Buy NO at [0.95, 0.985] band with 2 days to resolution (Polymarket, Tier-1, widened gather)",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 0,
    "slippage_bps": 0
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "NO",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "all_of": [
          {
            "gte": 0.95,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "lte": 0.985,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 1,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "34a89fc13357f96c7b28eab0dceb1d5f6338b217170a13fc70396bad04116063",
  "starting_capital": 1000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "22e80bcf-56cb-4b5f-bcde-d830b0ed1330",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    ]
  }
}

renderer: pancake-renderer@0.1.0 · engine: pancake-engine@0.1.1 · compiler: pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0 · spec_hash: 34a89fc13357 · ir_hash: 34a89fc13357