YES Momentum Continuation — Crypto 0.55–0.72

Buying YES against an EvidenceDataset (493 rows). 23 trades fired over the test window — -22.51% total return, 29.8% max drawdown.

Equity curve

$10,000 → $7,749.1 (-22.51%).

How to readThe line is this strategy’s account value over time, starting from $10,000. Each step is a position resolving at $1 or $0 per share; the horizontal baseline marks the starting capital, so anything below it is a net loss on the window.

Metrics

Avg trade return: −20.71%
Sharpe: -0.63
Max drawdown: 29.76%
Win rate: 52.17%
Trades: 23

All stats (6 more)

Edge vs crowd: +0.00%; no trades fired
Compounded (fixed-fraction): −22.51%; reflects sizing, not per-trade edge
CAGR: −10.29%
Sortino: -0.71
Probabilistic Sharpe (PSR): 9.38%; P(true Sharpe > 0)
Expected Calibration Error: 12.98%; lower is better; 0% = perfectly calibrated

DrawdownPeak-to-trough 29.76%.

Drawdown

Peak-to-trough 29.76%.

How to readDrawdown is how far below its previous peak the account sits at each point; it touches 0% at every new high and dips during losing stretches. The deepest dip is the worst loss you’d have had to sit through.

Trade log23 trades · 12 won · 11 lost

Trade log

Decision	Resolution	Entry price	Settle	PnL	Days held	Reason
2024-10-23	2024-11-06	0.6964	1	$217.27	14 days	hold_to_resolution
2024-11-23	2024-12-06	0.7164	1	$201.49	14 days	hold_to_resolution
2024-12-18	2025-01-01	0.5862	0	−$520.94	14 days	hold_to_resolution
2025-01-18	2025-02-01	0.6263	0	−$494.89	14 days	hold_to_resolution
2025-01-18	2025-02-01	0.5741	0	−$470.15	14 days	hold_to_resolution

Assumptions

How this was run i

Data source i: Pancake Polymarket
Granularity i: 86,400 sec
Period i: 2023-12-28 → 2026-05-04
Bars i: 1,000
Gaps i: 0 (0 sec)
Price source i: mid
Slippage i: 20 bps
Fees i: 10 bps
Resolution i: realized
Starting capital i: $10,000
Sizing i: fixed_fraction: 0.05
Engine i: batter@0.10.3 Ran on batter
Compiler i: pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0
IR i: 0.1
Spec i: 0.1

Resolution settles at $1 or $0 per share with no slippage or fee. On-chain costs and UMA dispute risk are not modeled.
Benchmark = crowd-priced YES at the first bar, held to resolution. Not sizing-matched to your strategy.
Sharpe is annualized by √252 (trading-day convention) even though prediction markets run 24/7.

Spec

pancake-evidence-spec · rawv0.1

// pancake-evidence-spec v0.1 — spec_hash 835864ab1812…
{
  "name": "YES Momentum Continuation — Crypto 0.55–0.72",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 10,
    "slippage_bps": 20
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "YES",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "all_of": [
          {
            "gte": 0.55,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "lte": 0.72,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "gte": 0,
            "feature": "momentum_7d"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 1,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "835864ab1812c74510fedda3268d05b1105ec9478fc2c1485cafc640063a9900",
  "starting_capital": 10000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "8fafc7de-6953-4dc3-9ea9-b9c23941aae1",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      },
      {
        "name": "momentum_7d",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "feature"
      }
    ]
  }
}

Evidence dataset i

Dataset: 8fafc7de-6953-4dc3-9ea9-b9c23941aae1
Rows hash i: e635d5aefbd20f98787a0e44f239d1ec21f5c8e1424d8f21a90a4a1d615412e1
Schema hash i: d04a4c14f4951eb0fa269e86cd52cee1c770afad6c4e05561fc53faea7ef169d
Rows: 1,000
Decision window: 2023-12-28 → 2026-04-23
Resolution window: 2024-01-10 → 2026-05-04

Validation i

Schema match: pass
Look-ahead check: pass
Monotonicity check: pass
Range checks: pass
Future rows i: 0

Verified by the runner i

Structural: Schema match, Lookahead, Monotonicity, Range, Required columns. Runner math: Cash ledger, Fee application, Slippage application, Event ordering.

Accepted as agent-supplied i

Feature columns: momentum_7d. Entry price source: not declared. Liquidity source: not declared.

Not modeled i

Market impact, Resolution lag, Resolver risk.