# Sports Underdogs 30-45¢ — NBA Season Window (Oct 2023–Apr 2025)

Canonical result: https://www.usepancake.com/michaelmustopo/polymarket-sports-underdogs-30-45-nba-home-underdog-proxy/v/2

## Verdict

No verdict block in this result. Note: risk-adjusted metrics (Sharpe/Sortino) suppressed — a positive ratio on a losing strategy is not meaningful.

## Metrics

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total return | — |
| CAGR | -1.63% |
| Sharpe | not meaningful — positive risk-adjusted ratio on a losing strategy (total return -1.2%) |
| Max drawdown | +32.51% |
| Win rate | +40.43% |
| Trades | 47 |

## Verification boundary

- Verified (structural): schema_match, lookahead, monotonicity, range, required_columns
- Verified (runner_math): cash_ledger, fee_application, slippage_application, event_ordering
- Agent-supplied evidence:
  - Feature columns: [days_to_resolution]
  - Entry price source: null
  - Liquidity source: null
- Unmodeled risks: market_impact, resolution_lag, resolver_risk, short_horizon

## Warnings

- RISK_METRIC_INCOHERENT (warn) — Sharpe/Sortino suppressed (positive ratio on a losing strategy)

## Provenance

- Dataset id: 0cce24fc-1712-4bb8-aa6a-1b6c41531dcf
- Rows hash: 7e36356d9be48b76aa1ead4018c04053cb8884c02c09d93f3fc51c42a3d0803e
- Schema hash: d04a4c14f4951eb0fa269e86cd52cee1c770afad6c4e05561fc53faea7ef169d
- Source URLs: [pancake://canonical/polymarket-clob-1d-history]
- Transformations: 0 steps

## Spec

```json
{
  "name": "Sports Underdogs 30-45¢ — NBA Season Window (Oct 2023–Apr 2025)",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 200,
    "slippage_bps": 100
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "YES",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "all_of": [
          {
            "gte": 0.3,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "lte": 0.45,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 0.99,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "adec35182e65f8e288f898ccf3aaa21467e0196e949847f4088fb30e6131b7d1",
  "starting_capital": 10000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "0cce24fc-1712-4bb8-aa6a-1b6c41531dcf",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      },
      {
        "name": "days_to_resolution",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "feature"
      }
    ]
  }
}
```

## Cite

Pancake backtest [wUWsMw5P](https://www.usepancake.com/michaelmustopo/polymarket-sports-underdogs-30-45-nba-home-underdog-proxy/v/2) — CAGR -1.63%, 47 trades, evidence-backed — 2026-06-12