# Polymarket Sports Underdogs 30-45¢ (NBA Home Underdog Proxy)

Canonical result: https://www.usepancake.com/michaelmustopo/polymarket-sports-underdogs-30-45-nba-home-underdog-proxy/v/1

## Verdict

No verdict block in this result.

## Metrics

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total return | — |
| CAGR | +119.98% |
| Sharpe | +143.00% |
| Max drawdown | +31.48% |
| Win rate | +49.19% |
| Trades | 124 |

## Verification boundary

- Verified (structural): schema_match, lookahead, monotonicity, range, required_columns
- Verified (runner_math): cash_ledger, fee_application, slippage_application, event_ordering
- Agent-supplied evidence:
  - Feature columns: [days_to_resolution]
  - Entry price source: null
  - Liquidity source: null
- Unmodeled risks: market_impact, resolution_lag, resolver_risk, short_horizon

## Provenance

- Dataset id: 24985da0-9e92-4a7e-92b6-b370b92e62b5
- Rows hash: 99c2d8572f76f77506035cc7e0dfb56758e690bc844c0f43f87b017bb1940492
- Schema hash: d04a4c14f4951eb0fa269e86cd52cee1c770afad6c4e05561fc53faea7ef169d
- Source URLs: [pancake://canonical/polymarket-clob-1d-history]
- Transformations: 0 steps

## Spec

```json
{
  "name": "Polymarket Sports Underdogs 30-45¢ (NBA Home Underdog Proxy)",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 200,
    "slippage_bps": 100
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "YES",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "all_of": [
          {
            "gte": 0.3,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "lte": 0.45,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 0.99,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "d019f7c8cd7807c2697cc3f41663f3931fd65a8ad0cf7df9d939a27c7742545c",
  "starting_capital": 10000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "24985da0-9e92-4a7e-92b6-b370b92e62b5",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      },
      {
        "name": "days_to_resolution",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "feature"
      }
    ]
  }
}
```

## Cite

Pancake backtest [eZKsNDbs](https://www.usepancake.com/michaelmustopo/polymarket-sports-underdogs-30-45-nba-home-underdog-proxy/v/1) — CAGR +119.98%, 124 trades, evidence-backed — 2026-06-12