Pancake

Polymarket Sports Underdogs 30-45¢ (NBA Home Underdog Proxy)

Buying YES against an EvidenceDataset (1080 rows). 124 trades fired over the test window — +223.65% total return, 31.5% max drawdown.

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Equity curve

$10,000 → $32,364.93 (223.65%).

How to readThe line is this strategy’s account value over time, starting from $10,000. Each step is a position resolving at $1 or $0 per share; the horizontal baseline marks the starting capital, so anything below it is a net loss on the window.

Metrics

Avg trade return
+28.00%
Sharpe
1.43
Max drawdown
31.48%
Win rate
49.19%
Trades
124
All stats (7 more)
Edge vs crowd
+0.00%
no trades fired
Compounded (fixed-fraction)
+223.65%
reflects sizing, not per-trade edge
CAGR
+119.98%
Sortino
2.61
Probabilistic Sharpe (PSR)
98.70%
P(true Sharpe > 0)
Min track record (MinTRL)
297.65
daily observations needed for 95% significance
Expected Calibration Error
11.91%
lower is better; 0% = perfectly calibrated
DrawdownPeak-to-trough 31.48%.

Drawdown

Peak-to-trough 31.48%.

How to readDrawdown is how far below its previous peak the account sits at each point; it touches 0% at every new high and dips during losing stretches. The deepest dip is the worst loss you’d have had to sit through.

Trade log124 trades · 61 won · 63 lost

Trade log

DecisionResolutionEntry priceSettlePnLDays heldReason
2025-04-302025-05-070.34340−$500.007 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-05-252025-05-310.41810−$451.257 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-05-252025-06-010.41560−$475.007 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-06-072025-06-140.41410−$428.697 dayshold_to_resolution
2025-06-182025-06-200.30811$888.342 dayshold_to_resolution
Assumptions

How this was run i

Data source i
Pancake Polymarket
Granularity i
86,400 sec
Period i
2024-11-22 → 2026-05-20
Bars i
1,000
Gaps i
0 (0 sec)
Price source i
mid
Slippage i
100 bps
Fees i
200 bps
Resolution i
realized
Starting capital i
$10,000
Sizing i
fixed_fraction: 0.05
Engine i
batter@0.10.3 Ran on batter
Compiler i
pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0
IR i
0.1
Spec i
0.1
  • Resolution settles at $1 or $0 per share with no slippage or fee. On-chain costs and UMA dispute risk are not modeled.
  • Benchmark = crowd-priced YES at the first bar, held to resolution. Not sizing-matched to your strategy.
  • Sharpe is annualized by √252 (trading-day convention) even though prediction markets run 24/7.
Spec

Spec

pancake-evidence-spec · rawv0.1
// pancake-evidence-spec v0.1 — spec_hash d019f7c8cd78…
{
  "name": "Polymarket Sports Underdogs 30-45¢ (NBA Home Underdog Proxy)",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 200,
    "slippage_bps": 100
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "YES",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "all_of": [
          {
            "gte": 0.3,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "lte": 0.45,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 0.99,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "d019f7c8cd7807c2697cc3f41663f3931fd65a8ad0cf7df9d939a27c7742545c",
  "starting_capital": 10000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "24985da0-9e92-4a7e-92b6-b370b92e62b5",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      },
      {
        "name": "days_to_resolution",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "feature"
      }
    ]
  }
}

Evidence dataset i

Dataset
24985da0-9e92-4a7e-92b6-b370b92e62b5
Rows hash i
99c2d8572f76f77506035cc7e0dfb56758e690bc844c0f43f87b017bb1940492
Schema hash i
d04a4c14f4951eb0fa269e86cd52cee1c770afad6c4e05561fc53faea7ef169d
Rows
1,000
Decision window
2024-11-22 → 2026-05-19
Resolution window
2024-11-29 → 2026-05-20

Validation i

  • Schema match: pass
  • Look-ahead check: pass
  • Monotonicity check: pass
  • Range checks: pass
  • Future rows i: 0

Verified by the runner i

Structural: Schema match, Lookahead, Monotonicity, Range, Required columns. Runner math: Cash ledger, Fee application, Slippage application, Event ordering.

Accepted as agent-supplied i

Feature columns: days_to_resolution. Entry price source: not declared. Liquidity source: not declared.

Not modeled i

Market impact, Resolution lag, Resolver risk, Short horizon.

Warnings

  • SHORT_HORIZON (warn) — median trade horizon 6d < 7d; entries sit too close to resolution to reflect a tradeable decision

renderer: pancake-renderer@0.1.0 · engine: batter@0.10.3 · compiler: pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0 · spec_hash: d019f7c8cd78… · ir_hash: d019f7c8cd78…