# Politics Long YES Under 0.20 — Underdog Mispricing

Canonical result: https://www.usepancake.com/michaelmustopo/politics-long-yes-under-0-20-underdog-mispricing/v/1

## Verdict

No verdict block in this result.

## Metrics

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total return | — |
| CAGR | -95.79% |
| Sharpe | -10.83% |
| Max drawdown | +100.00% |
| Win rate | +3.01% |
| Trades | 399 |

## Verification boundary

- Verified (structural): schema_match, lookahead, monotonicity, range, required_columns
- Verified (runner_math): cash_ledger, fee_application, slippage_application, event_ordering
- Agent-supplied evidence:
  - Feature columns: []
  - Entry price source: null
  - Liquidity source: null
- Unmodeled risks: market_impact, resolution_lag, resolver_risk

## Provenance

- Dataset id: c61b614d-d556-4900-a33f-a73786e72d9f
- Rows hash: 9f38ffd4e464c1bdd47b60584929f8e76b5b76633c850150dce1a6305bd2b525
- Schema hash: d04a4c14f4951eb0fa269e86cd52cee1c770afad6c4e05561fc53faea7ef169d
- Source URLs: [pancake://canonical/polymarket-clob-1d-history]
- Transformations: 0 steps

## Spec

```json
{
  "name": "Politics Long YES Under 0.20 — Underdog Mispricing",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 5,
    "slippage_bps": 20
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "YES",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "lte": 0.2,
        "feature": "entry_price"
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 1,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "0ff974417c72c3fb5e4b0dd1e6fc4bfacd98577bcec37cd71862dc284e494b26",
  "starting_capital": 10000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "c61b614d-d556-4900-a33f-a73786e72d9f",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    ]
  }
}
```

## Cite

Pancake backtest [Ll7BGyYu](https://www.usepancake.com/michaelmustopo/politics-long-yes-under-0-20-underdog-mispricing/v/1) — CAGR -95.79%, 399 trades, evidence-backed — 2026-06-12