Pancake

Politics Long YES Under 0.20 — Underdog Mispricing

Buying YES against an EvidenceDataset (759 rows). 399 trades fired over the test window — -99.99% total return, 100.0% max drawdown.

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Equity curve

$10,000 → $0.63 (-99.99%).

How to readThe line is this strategy’s account value over time, starting from $10,000. Each step is a position resolving at $1 or $0 per share; the horizontal baseline marks the starting capital, so anything below it is a net loss on the window.

Metrics

Avg trade return
−6.51%
Sharpe
-0.11
Max drawdown
100.00%
Win rate
3.01%
Trades
399
All stats (6 more)
Edge vs crowd
+0.00%
no trades fired
Compounded (fixed-fraction)
−99.99%
reflects sizing, not per-trade edge
CAGR
−95.79%
Sortino
-0.38
Probabilistic Sharpe (PSR)
41.72%
P(true Sharpe > 0)
Expected Calibration Error
0.84%
lower is better; 0% = perfectly calibrated
DrawdownPeak-to-trough 100.00%.

Drawdown

Peak-to-trough 100.00%.

How to readDrawdown is how far below its previous peak the account sits at each point; it touches 0% at every new high and dips during losing stretches. The deepest dip is the worst loss you’d have had to sit through.

Trade log399 trades · 12 won · 387 lost

Trade log

DecisionResolutionEntry priceSettlePnLDays heldReason
2024-06-082024-07-050.06510−$500.0027 dayshold_to_resolution
2024-06-162024-07-160.12581$2,55430 dayshold_to_resolution
2024-06-162024-07-160.10370−$331.7130 dayshold_to_resolution
2024-06-162024-07-160.02510−$243.8430 dayshold_to_resolution
2024-06-162024-07-160.0060−$475.0030 dayshold_to_resolution
Assumptions

How this was run i

Data source i
Pancake Polymarket
Granularity i
86,400 sec
Period i
2023-04-30 → 2026-05-19
Bars i
1,000
Gaps i
0 (0 sec)
Price source i
mid
Slippage i
20 bps
Fees i
5 bps
Resolution i
realized
Starting capital i
$10,000
Sizing i
fixed_fraction: 0.05
Engine i
batter@0.10.3 Ran on batter
Compiler i
pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0
IR i
0.1
Spec i
0.1
  • Resolution settles at $1 or $0 per share with no slippage or fee. On-chain costs and UMA dispute risk are not modeled.
  • Benchmark = crowd-priced YES at the first bar, held to resolution. Not sizing-matched to your strategy.
  • Sharpe is annualized by √252 (trading-day convention) even though prediction markets run 24/7.
Spec

Spec

pancake-evidence-spec · rawv0.1
// pancake-evidence-spec v0.1 — spec_hash 0ff974417c72…
{
  "name": "Politics Long YES Under 0.20 — Underdog Mispricing",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 5,
    "slippage_bps": 20
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "YES",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "lte": 0.2,
        "feature": "entry_price"
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 1,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "0ff974417c72c3fb5e4b0dd1e6fc4bfacd98577bcec37cd71862dc284e494b26",
  "starting_capital": 10000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "c61b614d-d556-4900-a33f-a73786e72d9f",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    ]
  }
}

Evidence dataset i

Dataset
c61b614d-d556-4900-a33f-a73786e72d9f
Rows hash i
9f38ffd4e464c1bdd47b60584929f8e76b5b76633c850150dce1a6305bd2b525
Schema hash i
d04a4c14f4951eb0fa269e86cd52cee1c770afad6c4e05561fc53faea7ef169d
Rows
1,000
Decision window
2023-04-30 → 2026-05-15
Resolution window
2023-05-29 → 2026-05-19

Validation i

  • Schema match: pass
  • Look-ahead check: pass
  • Monotonicity check: pass
  • Range checks: pass
  • Future rows i: 0

Verified by the runner i

Structural: Schema match, Lookahead, Monotonicity, Range, Required columns. Runner math: Cash ledger, Fee application, Slippage application, Event ordering.

Accepted as agent-supplied i

Feature columns: none. Entry price source: not declared. Liquidity source: not declared.

Not modeled i

Market impact, Resolution lag, Resolver risk.

renderer: pancake-renderer@0.1.0 · engine: batter@0.10.3 · compiler: pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0 · spec_hash: 0ff974417c72… · ir_hash: 0ff974417c72…