# OBS Canary — Vanilla YES Politics (40-70 odds)

Canonical result: https://www.usepancake.com/michaelmustopo/obs-canary-vanilla-yes-politics/v/1

## Verdict

No verdict block in this result.

## Metrics

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total return | — |
| CAGR | -8.95% |
| Sharpe | -54.06% |
| Max drawdown | +23.29% |
| Win rate | +47.83% |
| Trades | 23 |

## Verification boundary

- Verified (structural): schema_match, lookahead, monotonicity, range, required_columns
- Verified (runner_math): cash_ledger, fee_application, slippage_application, event_ordering
- Agent-supplied evidence:
  - Feature columns: []
  - Entry price source: null
  - Liquidity source: null
- Unmodeled risks: market_impact, resolution_lag, resolver_risk

## Provenance

- Dataset id: a122f878-88b9-47c0-bac0-939b0627457d
- Rows hash: 4958c15c66d7eee5c8c17c5da9dfe6ae34b99dd4cc7780259ac9fe00c6528180
- Schema hash: d04a4c14f4951eb0fa269e86cd52cee1c770afad6c4e05561fc53faea7ef169d
- Source URLs: [pancake://canonical/polymarket-clob-1d-history]
- Transformations: 0 steps

## Spec

```json
{
  "name": "OBS Canary — Vanilla YES Politics (40-70 odds)",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 20,
    "slippage_bps": 10
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "YES",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "all_of": [
          {
            "gte": 0.4,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "lte": 0.7,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 0.5,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "c8add604b88b9d54cbef4fc958f2fe83888de51accde79148ee6bee70282b41f",
  "starting_capital": 10000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "a122f878-88b9-47c0-bac0-939b0627457d",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    ]
  }
}
```

## Cite

Pancake backtest [Yd26L7lU](https://www.usepancake.com/michaelmustopo/obs-canary-vanilla-yes-politics/v/1) — CAGR -8.95%, 23 trades, evidence-backed — 2026-06-13