Pancake

OBS Canary — Vanilla YES Politics (40-70 odds)

Buying YES against an EvidenceDataset (331 rows). 23 trades fired over the test window — -15.76% total return, 23.3% max drawdown.

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Equity curve

$10,000 → $8,424.45 (-15.76%).

How to readThe line is this strategy’s account value over time, starting from $10,000. Each step is a position resolving at $1 or $0 per share; the horizontal baseline marks the starting capital, so anything below it is a net loss on the window.

Metrics

Avg trade return
−13.56%
Sharpe
-0.54
Max drawdown
23.29%
Win rate
47.83%
Trades
23
All stats (6 more)
Edge vs crowd
+0.00%
no trades fired
Compounded (fixed-fraction)
−15.76%
reflects sizing, not per-trade edge
CAGR
−8.95%
Sortino
-0.61
Probabilistic Sharpe (PSR)
15.77%
P(true Sharpe > 0)
Expected Calibration Error
25.74%
lower is better; 0% = perfectly calibrated
DrawdownPeak-to-trough 23.29%.

Drawdown

Peak-to-trough 23.29%.

How to readDrawdown is how far below its previous peak the account sits at each point; it touches 0% at every new high and dips during losing stretches. The deepest dip is the worst loss you’d have had to sit through.

Trade log23 trades · 11 won · 12 lost

Trade log

DecisionResolutionEntry priceSettlePnLDays heldReason
2024-07-152024-07-210.67070−$500.007 dayshold_to_resolution
2024-07-312024-08-060.63061$276.717 dayshold_to_resolution
2024-10-112024-10-180.56060−$488.847 dayshold_to_resolution
2024-10-112024-10-180.44041$587.887 dayshold_to_resolution
2024-10-312024-11-060.64811$206.247 dayshold_to_resolution
Assumptions

How this was run i

Data source i
Pancake Polymarket
Granularity i
86,400 sec
Period i
2024-07-15 → 2026-05-13
Bars i
400
Gaps i
0 (0 sec)
Price source i
mid
Slippage i
10 bps
Fees i
20 bps
Resolution i
realized
Starting capital i
$10,000
Sizing i
fixed_fraction: 0.05
Engine i
batter@0.10.3 Ran on batter
Compiler i
pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0
IR i
0.1
Spec i
0.1
  • Resolution settles at $1 or $0 per share with no slippage or fee. On-chain costs and UMA dispute risk are not modeled.
  • Benchmark = crowd-priced YES at the first bar, held to resolution. Not sizing-matched to your strategy.
  • Sharpe is annualized by √252 (trading-day convention) even though prediction markets run 24/7.
Spec

Spec

pancake-evidence-spec · rawv0.1
// pancake-evidence-spec v0.1 — spec_hash c8add604b88b…
{
  "name": "OBS Canary — Vanilla YES Politics (40-70 odds)",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 20,
    "slippage_bps": 10
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "YES",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "all_of": [
          {
            "gte": 0.4,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "lte": 0.7,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 0.5,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "c8add604b88b9d54cbef4fc958f2fe83888de51accde79148ee6bee70282b41f",
  "starting_capital": 10000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "a122f878-88b9-47c0-bac0-939b0627457d",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    ]
  }
}

Evidence dataset i

Dataset
a122f878-88b9-47c0-bac0-939b0627457d
Rows hash i
4958c15c66d7eee5c8c17c5da9dfe6ae34b99dd4cc7780259ac9fe00c6528180
Schema hash i
d04a4c14f4951eb0fa269e86cd52cee1c770afad6c4e05561fc53faea7ef169d
Rows
400
Decision window
2024-07-15 → 2026-05-07
Resolution window
2024-07-21 → 2026-05-13

Validation i

  • Schema match: pass
  • Look-ahead check: pass
  • Monotonicity check: pass
  • Range checks: pass
  • Future rows i: 0

Verified by the runner i

Structural: Schema match, Lookahead, Monotonicity, Range, Required columns. Runner math: Cash ledger, Fee application, Slippage application, Event ordering.

Accepted as agent-supplied i

Feature columns: none. Entry price source: not declared. Liquidity source: not declared.

Not modeled i

Market impact, Resolution lag, Resolver risk.

renderer: pancake-renderer@0.1.0 · engine: batter@0.10.3 · compiler: pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0 · spec_hash: c8add604b88b… · ir_hash: c8add604b88b…