# NO on High-Confidence Favorites (YES 0.85–0.95)

Canonical result: https://www.usepancake.com/michaelmustopo/no-on-high-confidence-favorites/v/1

## Verdict

No verdict block in this result.

## Metrics

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total return | — |
| CAGR | +3098.68% |
| Sharpe | +303.93% |
| Max drawdown | +3.96% |
| Win rate | +80.85% |
| Trades | 47 |

## Verification boundary

- Verified (structural): schema_match, lookahead, monotonicity, range, required_columns
- Verified (runner_math): cash_ledger, fee_application, slippage_application, event_ordering
- Agent-supplied evidence:
  - Feature columns: []
  - Entry price source: null
  - Liquidity source: null
- Unmodeled risks: market_impact, resolution_lag, resolver_risk

## Provenance

- Dataset id: 48b641d3-8f0a-4626-bc77-2b8bf1353c42
- Rows hash: 55a2d27346b347ad4bc830a91d154cb04b8e4ef3f2650872a9916b749e19df5c
- Schema hash: d04a4c14f4951eb0fa269e86cd52cee1c770afad6c4e05561fc53faea7ef169d
- Source URLs: [pancake://canonical/polymarket-clob-1d-history]
- Transformations: 0 steps

## Spec

```json
{
  "name": "NO on High-Confidence Favorites (YES 0.85–0.95)",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 5,
    "slippage_bps": 10
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "NO",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "all_of": [
          {
            "gte": 0.05,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "lte": 0.15,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.02
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "eq": 1,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "297f32957a9ba294394fc780346b60a2ec10eac07541f847dc132bd366df19a6",
  "starting_capital": 10000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "48b641d3-8f0a-4626-bc77-2b8bf1353c42",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    ]
  }
}
```

## Cite

Pancake backtest [qPEsxgzV](https://www.usepancake.com/michaelmustopo/no-on-high-confidence-favorites/v/1) — CAGR +3098.68%, 47 trades, evidence-backed — 2026-06-13