Pancake

Crypto Momentum Continuation (0.55–0.72, 1d horizon)

Buying YES against an EvidenceDataset (542 rows). 16 trades fired over the test window — +20.41% total return, 5.0% max drawdown.

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Equity curve

$10,000 → $12,040.84 (20.41%).

How to readThe line is this strategy’s account value over time, starting from $10,000. Each step is a position resolving at $1 or $0 per share; the horizontal baseline marks the starting capital, so anything below it is a net loss on the window.

Metrics

Avg trade return
+24.75%
Sharpe
0.78
Max drawdown
5.00%
Win rate
81.25%
Trades
16
All stats (7 more)
Edge vs crowd
+0.00%
no trades fired
Compounded (fixed-fraction)
+20.41%
reflects sizing, not per-trade edge
CAGR
+8.35%
Sortino
1.23
Probabilistic Sharpe (PSR)
91.92%
P(true Sharpe > 0)
Min track record (MinTRL)
1,167.5294
daily observations needed for 95% significance — sample has 541
Expected Calibration Error
17.00%
lower is better; 0% = perfectly calibrated
DrawdownPeak-to-trough 5.00%.

Drawdown

Peak-to-trough 5.00%.

How to readDrawdown is how far below its previous peak the account sits at each point; it touches 0% at every new high and dips during losing stretches. The deepest dip is the worst loss you’d have had to sit through.

Trade log16 trades · 13 won · 3 lost

Trade log

DecisionResolutionEntry priceSettlePnLDays heldReason
2024-05-232024-05-240.65031$268.691 dayhold_to_resolution
2024-10-282024-10-290.60530−$513.431 dayhold_to_resolution
2024-12-042024-12-050.67681$232.741 dayhold_to_resolution
2024-12-042024-12-050.61531$289.551 dayhold_to_resolution
2025-01-122025-01-130.62031$314.382 dayshold_to_resolution
Assumptions

How this was run i

Data source i
Pancake Polymarket
Granularity i
86,400 sec
Period i
2024-01-09 → 2026-05-04
Bars i
1,000
Gaps i
0 (0 sec)
Price source i
mid
Slippage i
5 bps
Fees i
2 bps
Resolution i
realized
Starting capital i
$10,000
Sizing i
fixed_fraction: 0.05
Engine i
batter@0.10.3 Ran on batter
Compiler i
pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0
IR i
0.1
Spec i
0.1
  • Resolution settles at $1 or $0 per share with no slippage or fee. On-chain costs and UMA dispute risk are not modeled.
  • Benchmark = crowd-priced YES at the first bar, held to resolution. Not sizing-matched to your strategy.
  • Sharpe is annualized by √252 (trading-day convention) even though prediction markets run 24/7.
Spec

Spec

pancake-evidence-spec · rawv0.1
// pancake-evidence-spec v0.1 — spec_hash 9d04621260b4…
{
  "name": "Crypto Momentum Continuation (0.55–0.72, 1d horizon)",
  "costs": {
    "fee_bps": 2,
    "slippage_bps": 5
  },
  "strategy": {
    "side": "YES",
    "entry": {
      "when": {
        "all_of": [
          {
            "gte": 0.55,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "lte": 0.72,
            "feature": "entry_price"
          },
          {
            "gte": 0,
            "feature": "momentum_7d"
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "sizing": {
      "mode": "fixed_fraction",
      "value": 0.05
    },
    "yes_payoff": {
      "when": {
        "gte": 1,
        "feature": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      }
    }
  },
  "spec_family": "pancake-evidence-spec",
  "spec_version": "0.1",
  "compiler_version": "pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0",
  "source_spec_hash": "9d04621260b47fa957be95718e9b3a243d015e65ab8a371dba6fd7fe2bdb26f3",
  "starting_capital": 10000,
  "evidence_dataset_id": "7da5ff11-2f39-4b8b-899a-16fa6c5fe501",
  "schema_requirements": {
    "required_columns": [
      {
        "name": "market_link",
        "type": "string",
        "semantic_role": "market_link"
      },
      {
        "name": "decision_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "decision_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolution_time",
        "type": "int",
        "semantic_role": "resolution_time"
      },
      {
        "name": "entry_price",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "entry_price"
      },
      {
        "name": "resolved_outcome_numeric",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "resolved_outcome_numeric"
      },
      {
        "name": "momentum_7d",
        "type": "number",
        "semantic_role": "feature"
      }
    ]
  }
}

Evidence dataset i

Dataset
7da5ff11-2f39-4b8b-899a-16fa6c5fe501
Rows hash i
6d1469a0985c5f21047d3462201a35dcbd8aacf67a21f64bff00406ffbb7fc5c
Schema hash i
d04a4c14f4951eb0fa269e86cd52cee1c770afad6c4e05561fc53faea7ef169d
Rows
1,000
Decision window
2024-01-09 → 2026-05-03
Resolution window
2024-01-10 → 2026-05-04

Validation i

  • Schema match: pass
  • Look-ahead check: pass
  • Monotonicity check: pass
  • Range checks: pass
  • Future rows i: 0

Verified by the runner i

Structural: Schema match, Lookahead, Monotonicity, Range, Required columns. Runner math: Cash ledger, Fee application, Slippage application, Event ordering.

Accepted as agent-supplied i

Feature columns: momentum_7d. Entry price source: not declared. Liquidity source: not declared.

Not modeled i

Market impact, Resolution lag, Resolver risk, Short horizon.

Warnings

  • SHORT_HORIZON (warn) — median trade horizon 1d < 7d; entries sit too close to resolution to reflect a tradeable decision

renderer: pancake-renderer@0.1.0 · engine: batter@0.10.3 · compiler: pancake-evidence-compiler@0.1.0 · spec_hash: 9d04621260b4… · ir_hash: 9d04621260b4…